greenhouse effect

Phenomenon of the Earth's atmosphere by which solar radiation, trapped by the Earth and re-emitted from the surface as long-wave infrared radiation, is prevented from escaping by various gases (the ‘greenhouse gases’) in the air. These gases trap heat because they readily absorb infrared radiation. As the energy cannot escape, it warms up the Earth, causing an increase in the Earth's temperature (global warming). Dubbed the ‘greenhouse effect’ by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius, it was first predicted in 1827 by French mathematician Joseph Fourier.

The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as well as water vapour. Fossil-fuel consumption and forest fires are the principal causes of carbon dioxide build-up; methane is a by-product of agriculture (rice, cattle, sheep).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2007 that average global temperatures could rise by 1.1–6.4°C/2.0–11.5°F during the 21st century, depending on levels of greenhouse gas emission. Among a range of effects that this would have, there would be a corresponding rise of 18–59 cm/7–23 in in sea level.

Low-lying areas and entire countries would be threatened by flooding and crops would be affected by the change in climate. However, predictions about global warming and its possible climatic effects are tentative and often conflict with each other.

At the 1992 Earth Summit it was agreed that by 2000 countries would stabilize carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels, but to halt the acceleration of global warming, emissions would probably need to be cut by 60%. Any increases in carbon dioxide emissions are expected to come from transport. The Berlin Mandate, agreed unanimously at the climate conference in Berlin in 1995, committed industrial nations to the continuing reduction of greenhouse gas emissions after 2000, when the existing pact to stabilize emissions runs out. Australia was in favour of different targets for different nations, and refused to sign a communiqué at the South Pacific Forum meeting in the Cook Islands in 1997 which insisted on legally-binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, committing the world's industrialized countries to cutting their annual emissions of harmful gases. By July 2001 the Protocol had been signed by 84 parties and ratified by 37; the USA announced its refusal to ratify the Protocol in June 2001. In November 2007, the new Australian Labor Party drastically altered the country's position, ratifying the Kyoto Protocol.