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IS THE END OF THE PROPERTY SLUMP IN SIGHT?

IS THE END OF THE PROPERTY SLUMP IN SIGHT?

By Jeremy Gates, Press Association

After 18 months, there is no sign the steep decline in house prices in Britain is near an end - although a "consensus of hope" suggests the floor could be reached sometime during 2009.

After 18 months, there is no sign the steep decline in house prices in Britain is near an end - although a "consensus of hope" suggests the floor could be reached sometime during 2009.

That's the view of the latest Global House Price Index from London and country agents Knight Frank, analysing house prices across 42 countries at the end of 2008. It finds more than 80% of them showing prices significantly below those recorded at the end of 2007.

A year only, only 27% of countries showed price falls.

Latvia showed the biggest plunge of 33.5%. Britain - minus 14.7% - was second biggest faller, followed by Iceland (-14%), USA (- 12.1%) and Ireland (-9.1%).

Even Spain, with hundreds of thousands of newly completed properties standing empty on the Costas, recorded a fall of 3.2% year on year, with a 2.4% drop in the final quarter of 2008.

In some countries, says Knight Frank, official figures "do not reflect the true extent of the decline."

"The current downturn is unlike any other we have ever witnessed in both scale and causes," says Nicholas Barnes, Knight Frank head of international residential research.

"Experience of previous downturns, while potentially helpful, will not necessarily provide us with an accurate picture of when and how markets will emerge from the crisis - nor will pre-conceived ideas or hubris."

Knight Frank says price movements in different countries varied widely in 2008 because markets are at different points in the cycle of the housing downturn.

But even countries showing a rise during 2008 were showing a fall by the fourth quarter.

Dubai, up 59% during 2008, joined the downturn in the final quarter of 2008 with a drop of nearly 8%.

Russia, up in the year by 19.7%, saw a 1.1% fall in the final quarter, while Bulgaria, up by 12.5% in the year, saw a 4.1% drop in the final quarter.

There seems little reason, at this stage, to anticipate an early bounce-back in prices. Markets could weaken further in response to more grim news in the financial sector.

"At some point, however, buyers will decide price falls in many markets represent once-in-a-generation opportunities that are too good to pass up," Barnes says.

For Britons buying abroad, the steeply falling value of the pound is an added problem. But plenty remain in the market looking for homes to enjoy, although fewer are likely to regard them as investments.

Specialist currency broker Foreign Currency Direct claims the proportion of potential overseas property buyers planning indefinite moves abroad actually rose 17% in the last year - although numbers of those keen to buy as an investment fell sharply.

David Kerns at Moneycorp, which advises UK buyers abroad, says the latest cut to Bank base rate means people who are cash rich could start to look seriously at taking money from their deposits to invest in property in the UK or overseas.

"This investment can offer a better rate of return with rates so low," he says.

"We are seeing some major discounts in the property market, with some really good bargains on offer.

"In Spain and Portugal, discounts of 30% or more are obtainable compared to a year ago, and repossessed properties in Florida and California sell at discounts up to 40% of 2007/8 values."

Total British demand for homes abroad has probably halved in the past year, because of the mortgage squeeze,

"Only the cash rich can afford holiday homes, because they have to put down around 30% in cash in the UK, and perhaps 40% abroad. This is not an ideal time for the average person without big savings to buy," Kerns says.

Daniel Wray, senior currency broker at FC Exchange, says sterling's strong performance against the Australian dollar (up 3.89%) and New Zealand dollar (up 13.14%) since February 2008 makes both countries more attractive to buyers holding sterling.

He says departing Britons priced out of French and Spanish markets might start contemplating moving to Antipodean countries - "where they'll get more for their money and enjoy a better quality of life on their UK pension".

Wray says a £350,000 home in the US now costs a British buyer some £67,000 more than it did in February 2007, if its dollar price remains unchanged. The same value property in the Eurozone would have cost around £26,000 more in February 2009 than a year ago.

:: INFORMATION: Foreign Currency Direct (0800 328 5884); FC Exchange (0207 989 000); Moneycorp (0207 589 3000).

:: CITY CENTRE FLATS TAKE A BIG DROP UNDER HAMMER

Anybody with cash or loans in place to bid around £65,000 has got a chance of getting a newish town/city apartment in the next series of residential auctions from Countrywide Property Auctions from March 19.

Countrywide's sale at Haydock Park Racecourse of homes in the Manchester area includes a one bedroom first floor flat in Salford, guided at £65,000, and a two bedroom flat at the Fusion development in the same town at £75,000.

In the Anfield district of Liverpool, a two bedroom terraced house has a £30,000 guide. And a two bedroom waterfront flat in Liverpool's Royal Quay is guided at £80,000-85,000.

The Leeds sale on March 20 includes a one bedroom flat in Sheffield, completed in 2002, guided at £65,000.

The London sale on March 24 includes a Grade II-listed one bedroom detached cottage at the foot of Market Hill in Maldon, Essex (guide £100,000) and a two bedroom purpose-built ground floor flat in a weatherboarded block in Saffron Walden (£128,000).

There's also a one bedroom flat in Streatham, South London, which would make either a bolthole during the week, or a home for a first time buyer. A repossession, it is guided at £120,000.

Countrywide Auctions managing director Mark Tanton says it seems as if people are taking the risk of re-investing in property rather than leaving their money in deposit accounts earning derisory rates.

Countrywide's last series of sales raised £10.6m on 106 homes sold out of 137 offered, a 78% success rate.

:: INFORMATION: Countrywide Property Auctions (01245 344 133).

:: SOUTH-WEST BUYERS CHASE STRONG RENTAL INCOME

As growing numbers of Britons plan holidays in the UK this summer, developers are switching new homes in South-West England to the lettings market until the market picks up.

Neil Simpkin, marketing director of Blue Chip Vacations, a self-catering holiday company with over 500 four and five-star homes across Devon and Cornwall believes his portfolio could reach 850 by December - with some developers making homes available for rental which they can't sell in the downturn.

"There will be little difficulty finding tenants for two bedroom apartments, which would sell in the £200,000-250,000 range," he says.

"The idea of holiday lettings attracts developers in fashionable areas like Rock and the Watergate Bay area of North Cornwall made famous by Jamie Oliver's restaurant."

Blue Chip reservation levels on its properties are 55% up on 2008, with 60% of bookings made online. The company will arrange £8m worth of lettings during the year, and owners must make homes available for a minimum 20 weeks a year.

"Many properties are available for 40 weeks and more because more people are buying holiday homes purely as investments to earn money," Simpkin says.

"The strong euro means visitors from Europe - notably Germany and Scandinavia - are booking holidays in South-West England in 2009.

"So far as British visitors are concerned, bookings come in much later as people leave it as late as they can to commit themselves. Bookings are still coming in for Easter."

Blue Chip figures suggest average rental income per property is around £20,000 per year, although large five bedroom detached houses with private pools can earn £50,000-plus.

"Many investors have had their fingers burned by global stock markets and the decreased level of interest paid on savings by banks and building societies," Simpkin says.

"On an investment of £250,000 at a generous fixed interest rate of 5%, you would net a return of £12,500 per annum, whereas we expect a property available for holiday letting to generate income upwards of £20,000 per year."

Midlands businessman Bon Higginson and whose wife Jill, who run an intruder alarm firm in Tamworth, have bought two apartments in the heart of Brixham, which will let through Blue Chip for around £600 per week.

They paid £170,000 for one property advertised by the developer at £225,000, while the other (already on Blue Chip books) was bought with 13 weeks of rental income confirmed for the following year.

"We see terrific potential in Brixham, where considerable investment is going into the infrastructure, and the area is so much cheaper than Dartmouth than we believe prices are likely to rise in the medium term," Higginson says.

"We are a bit concerned everybody is jumping on the bandwagon to buy holiday homes in the South West, but demand should rise as more Britons take holidays at home."

The couple say that Brixham, as a working port, has great attractions for boating enthusiasts - and a compact, community feel you don't find in nearby Torquay.

The West London-based Coast Group confirms contracted sales of eight apartments in Oceanpoint, a newly-built block on a former hotel site overlooking the popular Saunton Sands Beach on the North Devon coast. A ninth unit has also been reserved.

All sales have been achieved off plan since the autumn, with an average price of £500,000, with first completions in September 2009. Buyers, largely from London, the South East and South West including Bath and Bristol, will have to pay extra to use facilities in the nearby hotel.

Hugging the cliffs above Saunton Sands Beach, the luxury apartments offer easy access to the South Coast Path, the Tarka Trail, with world championship golf courses and Exmoor within easy reach.

"With the UK self-catering holiday market buoyant, buyers see this as a 'once in a lifetime' opportunity to buy a unique holiday home which can generate income in a tax-efficient way," Coast Group spokeswoman Philippa Hughes says.

To ensure favourable tax treatment of rental income, holiday home owners have to make a property available to let for a minimum 140 days a year, let it for at least 70 days and not to the same person for more than 31 days.

:: INFORMATION: Blue Chip Vacations (01803 855 282 and www.bluechipvacations.com); Coast Group (0208 876 4131 and www.oceanpoint-saunton.co.uk).

Brixham apartments owned by the Higginsons can be viewed online at www.bluegoosemarine.com.

:: ESTATE AGENTS CONSIDER NEW PLAN FOR REGISTER

Unscrupulous estate agents may have their wings trimmed by a new proposal to establish a register that they would have to join before they are allowed to practice.

The scheme would create the licensing system, which has been suggested and discussed for estate agents for much of the past 20 years.

The new initiative has come from Bill McClintock, chairman of the Ombudsman for Estate Agents (OEA), which already has about 95% of agents signed up to membership. The OEA hears complaints against members made by members of the public.

Writing in the current issue of Negotiator magazine, a trade paper for agents, McClintock argues that many estate agents have been shut down by the slump, and many will look to return when things pick up.

He believes a new registration service would avoid a "feeding frenzy by inexperienced and unprofessional individuals when the market recovers".

"We want an industry that can prove its worth and show that our commission rates - laughably low compared with those abroad - are not a rip-off, and that the service we provide is good and of great value."

If his plan is accepted, McClintock says "no place on the register would mean no job, so it's a simple and effective means of control".

A steering group, possibly 10-strong with representation by leading professional bodies, will now take a closer look at the plan, and at what has to be done to bring it into effect.

ends

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