Enlarge imageBy Catherine Bremer
MANAGUA, Nicaragua (Reuters) - Former Marxist guerrilla Daniel Ortega could win a return to power in Nicaragua on Sunday in a presidential election closely watched by the United States, his Cold War enemy.
Sixteen years after he was thrown out of office by voters tired of a civil war with U.S.-backed Contra rebels, the mustachioed Sandinista leads conservative rivals in opinion polls in his third comeback attempt.
Although Ortega has toned down his leftist rhetoric since the 1980s, Washington is worried he will team up with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as part of the anti-U.S. bloc of Latin American leaders if he wins.
Disenchanted with the failure of often corrupt pro-market governments to fight poverty, about a third of Nicaraguans support the 60-year-old Ortega.
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A beautiful land of tropical rain forests, volcanoes and lakes, Nicaragua is the second-poorest country in the Western Hemisphere and many are nostalgic for Sandinista agriculture, health care and education programs that alleviated poverty.
Supporters are willing to forget the war, rationing, economic collapse and isolation under Ortega’s rule throughout the 1980s.
"He was a kid then without experience. Now he is smart and can take Nicaragua forward," said bus driver Roger Obregon, 44, eating a chocolate ice by the waterfront of Lake Managua.
Ortega’s main challenger is wealthy former banker Eduardo Montealegre, a fan of late U.S. President Ronald Reagan, who aggressively backed Nicaragua’s Contra rebels at the height of the Cold War.
Candidates need 40 percent of the vote, or 35 percent and a 5-point lead, to win outright on Sunday and most opinion polls put Ortega close to that.
SECOND ROUND TOUGH
But the leftist, who was once jailed for robbing a bank to fund the revolution that overthrew dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979, will struggle to win a second-round runoff if he falls short on Sunday.
The right is divided between Montealegre and rival conservative candidate Jose Rizo but is expected to unite to defeat Ortega in any second round.
"Ortega wants to take us back to the ’80s. I was a child in the ’80s and I saw how there is no future with Ortega," said Cristian Urbina, who works at a Wal-Mart store in the pretty colonial city of Granada.
Ortega has won the support of former Contra leaders upset that conservative governments have done little to help veterans and widows from their side in the civil war. Some 30,000 people died in the fight between the Contras and Ortega’s government.
The former president is now conciliatory.
A Spanish-language version of the John Lennon song "Give Peace a Chance" blasted out at his campaign rallies, at which he made frequent references to God and vague promises of helping the poor.
"Poverty is going to disappear in Nicaragua by us loving each other and practicing solidarity," he told tens of thousands of supporters at his final campaign rally this week.
A coffee exporter with a population of 5.1 million people, Nicaragua is the latest stage for a fight between the United States and Venezuela’s Chavez for regional influence.
Opponents complain Chavez effectively bought votes for Ortega by sending cheap Venezuelan fertilizer and fuel to Sandinista-affiliated groups.
Sandinistas counter that Washington has unfairly backed Montealegre and scared voters by warning that U.S. aid and investment will drop if Ortega wins.
Polls open at 7 a.m. (1300 GMT) and close at 6 p.m.
Some 3.6 million people are registered to cast ballots, but the actual number of voters is lower because an estimated 800,000 Nicaraguans live in the United States, Costa Rica or El Salvador.
Some 16,000 local and 1,100 international observers will monitor the vote, and the United States has sent $12 million in non-partisan electoral assistance.
