By David Clarke
LONDON (Reuters) - A report on the economic costs of climate changes shows the longer the world waits to tackle global warming, the greater the bill will be, the environment minister said on Sunday.
The report by chief government economist Nicholas Stern, a 27-page summary of which was obtained by Reuters, said ignoring climate change could lead to economic upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression.
The 700-page report, to be published on Monday, said that no matter what is done now, the chance to keep greenhouse gases at a level which scientists say should avoid the worst effects of climate change "is already almost out of reach".
But it said the benefits of determined worldwide steps to tackle climate change would greatly outweigh the costs, underlining the need for urgent action to combat global warming.
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"It’s very significant that the economics revealed by Sir Nicholas Stern’s report is that the longer we wait ... the more costly it will be," Environment Minister David Miliband said.
"It’s vital that this is a global response, not just a national response," he told Sky News. "It’s vital that the major emitters like the United States, and the growing economies like China and India, are also part of the solution."
The report said the world does not have to choose between tackling climate change and economic growth, contradicting U.S. President George W. Bush who pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol against global warming in part because he said it hit jobs.
"The evidence gathered by the review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs," said the report, prepared for Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown.
KYOTO’S SUCCESSOR
It precedes U.N. climate talks, starting in Nairobi on November 6, focussing on finding a successor to Kyoto which ends in 2012.
Blair is pushing for a post-Kyoto framework that would include the United States -- the world’s biggest producer of greenhouse gases that cause climate change -- as well as major developing countries such as China and India.
Kyoto obliges 35 rich nations to cut emissions of greenhouse gases -- which come mainly from burning fossil fuels in power plants, factories and cars -- by some 5 percent from 1990 levels by 2008-12. Many Kyoto nations are above target.
"Because we have got leadership from the top of the government ... we cannot just set an example at home by reducing our emissions but actually help form a global agreement that really does get to grips with this problem," said Miliband.
Stern said that, on current trends, average global temperatures will rise by 2-3 degrees centigrade within the next 50 years or so, compared with temperatures in 1750-1850.
If emissions continue to grow, the earth could warm by several more degrees, with severe consequences that would hit poor countries most, the former World Bank chief economist said.
Melting glaciers would initially increase flood risk and then reduce water supplies, eventually threatening one-sixth of the world’s population, mainly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China and the South American Andes, he said.
Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, could leave hundreds of millions unable to produce or buy enough food, he said. Rising sea levels could result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year.
