Enlarge imageBy Patricia Reaney
LONDON (Reuters) - Horses that have run the Aintree course and never fallen are the best bets to win the Grand National and jockeys should be very careful approaching the first fence, scientists say.
That’s where horses are most likely to take a tumble on the 4.5 mile steeplechase course on April 3, they believe.
"Horses with proven experience are twice as likely to complete the race," Christopher Proudman, a veterinary surgeon at the University of Liverpool, told Reuters.
After analysing results from the past 15 Grand Nationals in a study funded by Aintree Racecourse, Proudman and his team found that ground conditions, a large number of runners and starting odds also influenced the outcome of the race that is watched by 600 million people worldwide.
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But above all else, the research published in the science journal Nature showed the value of equine experience. Horses new to Aintree also had a higher risk of falling or losing their rider over the 30-obstacle course.
Only about half the 40 horses in the race make it to the finish. The first fence is by far the most troublesome and is seven times more likely to result in a fall, Proudman said.
Becher’s Brook, which has a ditch on the landing side, is also difficult to jump.
Proudman said training horses to jump Grand National-type fences, some of which are nearly five feet high and have ditches or water jumps, would reduce the number of animals that fail to complete the race.
Ground conditions were also important. If it was either too hard or too soft, fewer horses finished. Only 18 percent of horses completed the race "when the going is soft or heavy," according to the report.
Horses with the longest odds had the greatest probability of not crossing the finish line.
Although the research provides tips for jockeys and punters, its main aim was to identify factors to decrease the risk of horses falling and to improve completion rates.
"Equine welfare is our highest priority at Aintree and scientific research in this field was clearly required," Charles Barnett, managing director of the racecourse which has staged the race since 1839, said in a statement.
