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Brown faces test in Glasgow election

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24/07/2008 23:44

By Golnar Motevalli

GLASGOW (Reuters) - Voters in Scotland went to the polls on Thursday for a parliamentary election that the Labour Party is expected to win, but which could dramatically dent the prime minister’s standing if it is lost.

Opinion polls predict Labour will hang on to the seat in Glasgow, despite a strong push by the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Even if it retains the traditional Labour seat, the party’s majority is likely to be greatly reduced, pollsters say, as disaffection with Gordon Brown’s leadership grows.

Since succeeding Tony Blair 13 months ago, Brown has seen his popularity slump, dented by the credit crisis, which has hit economic growth and sent house prices sliding, and a sense that his serious style has failed to connect with voters.

Brown has not visited Glasgow East to campaign for Labour candidate Margaret Curran, drawing SNP jibes that he is an electoral liability for Labour.

The by-election is being held after the Labour incumbent stepped down due to ill health.

After stinging defeats in elections to local councils and for two parliamentary seats, Labour lags the Conservatives by up to 20 points in national opinion polls.

That has raised Conservative hopes of ending more than 11 years of Labour rule at the next parliamentary election, which Brown must call by May 2010.

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Jean Watt, a retired Glasgow East resident, said she thought Labour was losing its grip and she hoped for an SNP victory.

"I want to frighten Labour a bit. I would like the SNP to win, but I’m not voting for independence or separation (of Scotland from Britain)," she said.

Chris Logie, an 18-year-old student voting for the first time, said he did not feel Labour was right for the area.

"I think an independent Scotland would be better. I’m voting for the SNP," he said.

A drastic slide in support for Labour in once "safe" areas such as Glasgow East would not bode well for the party at the election.

The sprawling constituency -- with pockets of extreme poverty in which life expectancy is lower than in the Gaza Strip -- has traditionally voted Labour. The party won there with a majority of 13,507 in 2005.

Anger at the slow pace of regeneration in one of Europe’s most depressed areas and frustration with the rising cost of living could hurt Labour in Glasgow East where unemployment, alcohol and drug addiction far surpass the national average.

The SNP -- Labour’s main opponents in Scotland, where the Conservatives barely figure -- looks set to steal thousands of Labour votes, but the party needs a 22 percent swing to win.

The SNP ended 50 years of political dominance in Scotland by Labour in May 2007, becoming the largest force in the Scottish parliament.

Polls close at 10 p.m..

(Editing by Giles Elgood)