Cameron extends poll lead on economy blues

28/03/2008 17:45

By Tim Castle

LONDON (Reuters) - Conservative Leader David Cameron extended his lead over Labour in an opinion poll on Friday as voters’ pessimism about the economy grows.

The YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph put the Tories on 43 percent (up 3 points), Labour on 29 percent (down 4) and the Liberal Democrats on 17 percent (up 1).

If replicated at a general election that would be enough to give Cameron an overall majority in the House of Commons.

The poll was the fourth since Chancellor Alistair Darling’s low-key budget earlier this month to show the Conservatives extending their lead over Gordon Brown’s Labour.

Previous polls, which had shown the Tories ahead but stuck below 40 percent, had led to speculation that the best Cameron could hope for would be to lead the largest party in a hung parliament.

"In electoral terms, David Cameron is now far outperforming everyone of his four post-Thatcher predecessors," Essex University Professor of Government Anthony King wrote in the Telegraph.

"Labour is being hit by a double whammy -- the voters’ belief that the government can no longer govern effectively, and the serious economic downturn that few voters believe the Brown government can deal with," he added.

A majority of those asked by YouGov (52 percent) blamed global factors beyond the .....continued below

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government’s control for the difficulties facing the economy, but three-quarters also feared the problems would continue into next year.

A separate survey from Gfk NOP on Friday showed that consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest since 1993, while the Nationwide Building Society said house prices had fallen for the fifth month in a row.

The government, which does not have to call an election till 2010, said history showed that opinion poll leads often turned into election defeats.

Labour had been ahead in polls ahead of the 1987 and 1992 elections but failed to translate that into success at the ballot box, Education Secretary Ed Balls noted.

"When it came to the final analysis, people judged that we weren’t competent and couldn’t run the economy," he said.

"It’s quite dangerous to look at opinion polls at this stage of the cycle."

(Editing by Steve Addison)

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