"Brown Bounce" could spark early election

27/07/2007 15:45

By Paul Majendie

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime minister Gordon Brown could double his Labour Party’s parliamentary majority if he called a snap "honeymoon election" in the autumn, an opinion poll showed on Friday.

He celebrated his first month in power with the party’s best poll ratings in four years, sparking press speculation that the "Brown bounce" could tempt the cautious Scot into an election when parliament returns after its summer recess.

The Daily Telegraph’s YouGov poll of 1,877 voters questioned online on July 23-25 showed 41 percent backed Labour, 32 percent the Conservatives and 16 percent the centrist Liberal Democrats.

This would give Brown a majority of 134 seats if an election were held now, double his present majority, the paper said.

Only one in five voters thought the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, could win the next election which had not been expected until 2009.

The Conservatives lost the last three elections to Labour under Tony Blair, who stepped down last month after 10 years in office.

Blair’s decision to join the U.S. invasion of Iraq, backed by Brown, delivered a body blow to Labour’s popularity and Blair’s personal standing.

Political analyst Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University, said the Conservatives "are not forging ahead, .....continued below

Advertisement starts

---

---

Advertisement ends

they are forging backwards ... David Cameron’s standing has plummeted."

After a decade in Blair’s shadow, Brown has won support by distancing himself from his predecessor on a string of domestic issues -- among them the law on cannabis and allowing construction of a ’supercasino’.

Brown, who flies to Washington at the weekend for his first meeting as prime minister with President George W. Bush, has promised sweeping changes in both style and policy to restore public trust in a government badly damaged by the Iraq war.

The Daily Telegraph soundings were the latest in a round of opinion polls that showed Brown’s popularity rising and sent Labour lawmakers off on their summer break in ebullient form.

Earlier this month, Labour retained two parliamentary seats in by-elections, albeit with reduced majorities.

Both results were a blow to Cameron, whose Conservatives came third behind the Liberal Democrats although he staged a high-profile campaign in support of his party candidates.

Cameron was also criticised for going ahead with a planned fact-finding trip to Rwanda at a time when Britain was hit by the worst floods in 60 years. His own constituency was among the areas under water.

© 2008 Reuters Click for restrictions