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Bank is expected to leave rates on hold

09/07/2008 16:56

By Sumeet Desai

LONDON (Reuters) - Growth is falling, inflation is rising and interest rates, as a result, look set to remain steady this week and possibly for the rest of the year as policymakers grapple with the most challenging conditions in around two decades.

All 72 analysts polled by Reuters predicted the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would keep rates pegged at 5 percent after its two-day meeting on Thursday.

King’s predecessor, Eddie George, used to liken the MPC’s travails to finding a safe route between Scylla and Charybdis, the two sea monsters of Homeric legend that threatened the lives of Odysseus and his men.

Policymakers say it’s never been this hard. On one hand, the economy risks hitting the rocks as a housing market downturn deepens. But on the other, the soaring cost of food and fuel is threatening to create an inflationary spiral.

"Rates are on hold until it is clearer which is the greater threat to achieving the inflation target," said Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG. "It may be some time before the MPC feels confident enough to bet one way or the other."

A few MPC members thought about raising rates last month -- inflation is running at more than a percentage point above the central bank’s target and could soon double it -- before concluding the economy didn’t need it.

One policymaker, David Blanchflower, voted to cut borrowing costs by a quarter-point. He has argued that the risks to growth are so great that worrying about inflation is like fiddling when Rome burns.

The European Central Bank doesn’t think so, though. It lifted borrowing costs in the euro zone last week to rein in soaring prices and financial markets are betting the BoE will soon follow suit.

But many economists say slowing growth may soon force the MPC’s hand in the other direction as policymakers try fend off recession.

Most of the economic news has been dire. Survey after survey just keeps adding to the general gloom with a number of indicators at levels not seen since the 1991-2 recession.

Housing is leading the charge lower with new mortgages slumping by more than half in a year as banks are demanding higher deposits for loans because they themselves are reeling from a global credit crunch.

After a decade in which they trebled, house prices are now falling at rates not seen since the crash of the early 1990s, sharply reducing confidence in a country where two-thirds of households own their homes.

One of the country’s best-known retailers Marks and Spencer had to deliver a shock profit warning last week and said times were about to get much tougher.

Not least for the thousands of estate agents who are expected to lose their jobs. Homebuilders are really suffering. Persimmon, one of the country’s biggest, said on Tuesday it was cutting 1,100 jobs.

In Homer’s epic poem, Odysseus was forced to choose which of the monsters he would sail next to. He decided to pass by Scylla and lose only a few sailors, rather than risk the loss of his ship to the whirlpool of Charybdis.

Some commentators say King and his fellow policymakers should, like the ECB, be willing to accept a sharp slowdown to avoid the inflation whirlpool spiralling completely out of hand. Business is desperately hoping it won’t.

"The MPC must resist misguided calls for higher interest rates. Indeed, if wage pressures remain muted, the option of early interest rate cut must be considered," said David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce.




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