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US data drags FTSE down

US data drags FTSE down



It was all going relatively smoothly for investors today - until the party poopers arrived in the shape of the Americans.

Higher than expected US manufacturing and inflation figures released early this afternoon prompted renewed fears that the Federal Reserve would put up interest rates at its meeting next week. Analysts had just started to think a rate rise was unlikely, when today's manufacturing survey showed an unexpected rise in the Institute for Supply Management's index from 53.8 to 54.7 last month, essentially meaning the US economy is expanding faster than expected. On top of that came personal income and expenditure figures showing a 0.2% rise in June, giving an annual increase of 2.4% compared to the Fed's desired 2% level.

All that was then needed was for new US treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, to reiterate the US government's strong dollar policy and market sentiment went south. With Wall Street opening sharply lower the FTSE 100 reversed its early - albeit tentative - gains to close 47.5 points lower at 5880.8. It was not just the US causing concern: there are also some analysts who believe the Bank of England may raise UK rates this Thursday. A recent spate of UK economic statistics, including weaker than expected manufacturing numbers out today, are not giving a clear signal as to which way the Bank will move.

Technical analysts said the ease with which the FTSE 100 had dropped through 5885 points - a support.....continued below

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level it had taken a lot of effort to achieve - was worrying for the market.

Miners were wanted early on after a number of production reports, but suggestions that the price of copper could fall if a union dispute in Chile is resolved sent shares into reverse.

Kazakhmys ended 2p lower at £12.49 after touching £12.84. It said copper production was up 11% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months. Credit Suisse analysts raised their price target for the company from £13.00 to £15.00. "[Copper] inventories are at record lows and prices are primed to spike should labour negotiations [between rival miner BHP Billiton and unions in Chile] falter," said the analysts. But broker Seymour Pierce edged down its earning estimates and set a £12.50p target.

Antofagasta also reported copper production figures, and its shares lost 0.5p to 417.75p as it revealed a slippage from 107,000 to 100,900 tonnes in the last three months. Lonmin lost 61p to £28.63 despite the South African miner saying it was on track to produce around 1m ounces of platinum this year. Seymour Pierce said the figures contained a number of disappointments, with a record final quarter needed for the company to meet expectations. The analysts also believe the recently acquired Limpopo operation will be more difficult to operate than anticipated. They have an underperform rating on the shares and a £23.00 target.

With the oil price hitting $76 a barrel on the Lebanon conflict and reports of pipeline sabotage in Iraq, production group Cairn Energy was the biggest riser in the FTSE 100, up 36p to £21.47. Gas groups BG and Centrica were also higher, up 8.5p to 728.5p and 2.25p to 295.25p respectively.

It may not be a terribly glamorous sector, but the building materials business was one bright spot today. Better-than-expected results from builder's merchant and Wickes DIY owner Travis Perkins sent its shares soaring 80p to £16.05p. It reported flat half-year profits of £110m but analysts had been expecting a fall of anything up to 10%.

Larger rival Wolseley benefited, adding 8p to £11.48p.

Ratcatcher Rentokil Initial was also in demand, up 1.5p to 165.25p as traders said the shares were undervalued. Sugar producer Tate & Lyle continued its good run on hopes of a boost to its US business after an American-Mexican deal on sweeteners, up another 7p to 692p.

Standard Life rose 2.5p to 252.5p after the life insurer reported half-year sales had climbed 17%. Analysts at Evolution Securities said the figures were better than expected and set a 280p target for the recently listed shares.

Imperial Leather soaps and trading business PZ Cussons also did well after its results. The shares climbed 58p to £14.58 as full-year profits came in 9% ahead at £63.6m, with strong sales from Nigeria and the elimination of losses after it retreated from Russia and eastern Europe. Broker Oriel Securities rated the shares a buy.

Banking group HBOS slipped 2p to 972.5p despite a 13% rise in first-half profits, with some analysts expressing disappointment at a 4% rise in earnings at the retail business. But Dresdner Kleinwort remained positive and raised its price target from £11.00 to £11.50. "On declared earnings HBOS is very cheap," said the analysts. "Adjusting for hidden [deferred] profits in its life business, it becomes absurdly cheap."

Insurance group Resolution fell 7p to 560.5p on talk that Citigroup had placed 13m shares - 2% of the company - at 557p.

It was a big day in the sporting world too, with bookmaker William Hill 2.5p higher at 593.5p as its half-year profits rose 22.9%. Sportingbet fell 10.75p to 235p, with continuing worries about the justice department actions against online gambling companies in the US outweighing an upbeat trading statement. Fellow online gambling companies PartyGaming, down 3.75p to 105.75p, and 888 Holdings, 12p lower at 143p, were also caught in the continuing fallout of the BetonSports arrests. Yesterday eight people connected with BetonSports appeared in a US court to plead not guilty to charges of fraud, racketeering and unlawful gaming.

Lower down the market, Central China Goldfields edged up 0.5p to 15.5p after another upbeat report showing a potential third gold deposit at its Snow Mountain project.

Island Oil & Gas announced a gas discovery off the coast of Ireland and its shares added 20.5p to 117.5p.

But it was a bad day for investors in Aerobox, which specialises in manufacturing containers for the freight and air cargo industries, with its shares falling 1.625p to 1.5p The company had planned to increase production at its main subsidiary, ACS, but found its machinery was not reliable enough for the increased workload. The resulting production bottlenecks meant output was below the forecasts the company made when negotiating its $3m debt facility with investment group Laurus Master Fund.

Laurus reviewed its position and agreed to supply sufficient working capital for the company to complete its orders to mid-September. But there is no indication the long-term debt facility will still be available. The company has cut 33 staff and is in talks with its creditors. It is reviewing all its options, including a possible sale of ACS.

India Hospitality Group - which has raised $100m to buy an Indian business focussed on leisure and tourism - joined AIM today. It has issued units worth $6 each, comprising one share and two warrants. The shares closed at $5.7 and the warrants at $0.75, meaning the value of each unit had risen to $7.2.

guardian.co.uk © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2008

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