Accessibility options


Heather Connon: Is the stock market correction over, then?

Heather Connon: Is the stock market correction over, then?



Is the stock market correction over, then? Certainly, share prices seem to have recovered their poise: the FTSE 100 index spent August creeping back towards the 6,000 level and is now just 3 per cent below the peak achieved in April. But most traders and investors spent the summer on the beach rather than the dealing desk - hence the advice to 'sell in May and go away, come back again on St Leger's day' (the horse race that was run yesterday). So should investors start buying shares again now?

There is one big reason not to: the US. The long-expected housing market downturn now seems to be happening, with prices, new and second-hand sales all heading inexorably downwards. That could mean the prolonged consumer boom, which has been keeping company profits healthy across the world, will finally end. Indeed, the consensus of City analysts' forecasts is that company profits will fall by a fifth next year. Add in the fact that interest rates have been on a rising trend here, in Japan and the US, and it is easy to argue that stock markets could be difficult from now on.

Advertisement starts



Advertisement ends

But there are plenty of positives too. David Jane, head of equity investment at M&G, thinks analysts are being too pessimistic on company profits. He believes the profit decline is already well priced into the market and equities remain the most attractive investment class compared with property, cash and bonds. 'There are a huge number of cheap stocks. You can put together a portfolio offering a yield not short of that on bonds.'

James Ridgewell at New Star points out that the ratio between share prices and company earnings - one of the key determinants of stock market value - is at its lowest level in a decade, despite the recent rally. The interim company reporting season is about to start here but in the US - which starts the process earlier - companies have generally been exceeding analysts' forecasts, supporting Jane's argument about pessimistic analysts. 'You should be buying. Don't get spooked by the increase since the end of the sell-off... there is a lot more to go for,' he says.

Hugh Duff at Scottish Investment Trust adds that merger and acquisition activity will continue as private equity firms are still searching for ways to spend their huge cash piles.

For most of the last three years, investors have favoured defensive stocks - those companies whose profits are relatively unaffected by economic cycles, such as tobacco firms, utilities and food retailers. Jonathan Bell, the chief investment officer at Stanhope, thinks the uncertain economic outlook means that this could continue, at least until their prices rise so far that their yield attractions disappear.

For those who want to build up their own portfolio of shares, housebuilders are among the experts' favourite tips. In contrast to the US, our housing market is reasonably healthy yet builders' shares are still very cheap. And Jane also likes banks - a giant like HSBC can be bought on a yield of 4.4 per cent, based on this year's expected dividends, and has increased its payout for more than two decades.

You might want to put oil and coffee in your basket

Fancy a flutter on lean hogs, a punt on cotton or a bet on soybean oil? You will shortly be able to do that simply by ringing your stockbroker and buying a share. ETF Securities, which already runs similar products allowing investors to track gold and oil prices, is launching 29 exchange traded commodities funds over the next few weeks.

Few private investors will - or should - want to dabble in individual commodities like gold or oil, far less anything as esoteric and volatile as zinc or coffee. But, as well as 19 individual funds, ETF is also launching 10 commodity baskets, including one for all commodities as well as things like agricultural commodities, energy, precious and industrial metals. These could to be far more interesting to individual investors with large portfolios looking to diversify their investments.

Commodities have been the hot area to be in over the last five years: JP Morgan's Natural Resources fund and Merrill Lynch's Gold and General funds - among the few funds that investors can use to get exposure to commodities - have both risen by more than 330 per cent over the last five years, almost three times better than the best-performing UK All Companies fund.

But these both invest mainly in the shares of commodity companies rather than the commodities themselves. While resources companies have obviously benefited hugely from soaring commodity prices, their performance is also heavily influenced by the stock market. Take BP for example: while the oil price has all but doubled in the last two years, BP's shares have risen just 20 per cent, below the average for the FTSE 100 index.

While there have been a few fund launches using futures and other derivative contracts to give investors exposure to commodities directly, ETF Securities' range are the simplest, and the first to offer such a wide choice of products.

Similar to a tracker fund, exchange traded securities are designed to mirror a particular price index but, unlike a unit trust tracker, they are quoted on the stock market and can be bought and sold through a broker like any other share. They will often be cheaper than a tracker too: there is no upfront charge other than the broker's commission, they are exempt from stamp duty and the annual charge is just 0.49 per cent.

There is already a range of ETFs tracking stock market and property indices; adding commodities makes them a valuable tool for investors. That does not mean you should pile in expecting the same sort of gains that have already been seen. While some experts believe the commodity bull run has only just started, it would be rash to bank on it: it is just as likely that it will pause, or even reverse.

Nor should you put all your portfolio into commodities - and particularly not individual ones - 10 per cent of your total assets will be enough for most investors.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Page: 123

Advertisement starts



Advertisement ends

a high street scene

Consumer news

Get the latest on consumer issues and trends - from property, rip-offs and pensions to fraud, political angles and rising prices

Features and analysis

Top quality stories and analysis of the burning money issues of the day - get the bigger picture
Share prices
Shares news
Keep bang up-to-date with the latest news affecting share prices and the stockmarket
Family

Free guides and brochures

There's a whole range of useful information to choose from including investing, retirement and family finances
Skip to page content | Text onlyGraphical version of this page

Tiscali Quicklinks. Please visit our Accessibility Page for a list of the Access Keys you can use to find your way around the site, skip directly to the main navigation, to the page content, or to more links within money.

web |  shopping |  this site |  video |  local services

Page Footer


Access keys


You will need to use different key combinations in order to use access keys depending on your internet browser, find out which on our accessibility page.
  • (0) Navigate to Accessibility page.
  • (1) Navigate to Home page.
  • (2) Navigate to My email.
  • (3) Navigate to My Account.
  • (4) Navigate to Site Map page.
  • (5) Navigate to Contact us page.
  • (6) Navigate to Members channel.
  • (7) Navigate to Services channel.
  • (8) Navigate to News & Info channel.
  • (9) Navigate to Entertainment channel.
  • ([) Skip down to the Primary navigation block.
  • (]) Skip down to the more links within this section block.
  • (=) Bypass all navigation and jump to the content.
  • (x) Text only version of this page.
Background images used:
furniture images used in the site icons used in the site images used in the header