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Is it worth remortgaging?

For sale signs

How the rate rise will hit the housing market

By Sarah Modlock

Who says money is boring? With the month-by-month, will-they-wont-they drama of interest rates, there is more excitement - not to mention more ups and downs - than a Jackie Collins novel.

So what will the coming months bring for the millions of homeowners on tenterhooks for further base rate announcements by the Bank of England?

A base rate increase seemed inevitable in May and could be followed by another in the next couple of months. But why?

Inflation creeps up

The Bank of England is responsible for keeping inflation on or below a target of 2% but last month saw it break through this figure to reach a worrying 3.1%, the fastest rise for 10 years.

Although many factors are taken into consideration, the Bank is expected to raise rates in a bid to help reduce inflation. Higher inflation means a general rise in prices across the economy and is bad news for everyone, adding to the price of everything from a pint of milk to council tax.

More rises on the way?

And don't think this latest rise is the end of it, another increase of 0.25% pushing the base rate to 5.75% could be on the cards in coming months.

According to Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, the acceleration in house prices so far this year made a rate rise in May a certainty.

"While a stable economic environment with contained inflation is essential for a well behaved housing market, we would caution against too sharp an interest rate response to current economic data," she says.

Property market horror

"In our view, the talk of rates climbing to 6% and beyond are overblown and if implemented in the current climate could be damaging to housing market stability.

With the market already showing signs of cooling, too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly. But on top of this, they could also lead to widespread payment difficulties which, in an illiquid market, could precipitate price falls."

House prices keep motoring

The pace of house price growth almost doubled during April to 0.9%, up from 0.5% in March. This brings the annual rate of inflation back into double digits at 10.2% and the price of a typical house up to £180,314, which is £16,741 higher than at this time last year.

Investec Securities chief economist Philip Shaw said: "The inflation figures made an interest rate rise a certainty, along with the possibility of another rate rise beyond this."

Jonathan Said, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, agrees "This opens the possibility of rates rising beyond 5.5% after May towards the 6% level."

Mortgage payers could struggle

A fourth increase in less than a year has left everyone with a variable rate mortgage working out how much extra money they will need for increased repayments.

Nationwide's data shows that 57% of the total number of people with a mortgage have a variable rate mortgage. "Since July, the average rate payable has increased by 0.65% (less than the 0.75% increase in the base rate) from 5.46% to 6.11%," says Earley. "The average amount outstanding on a mortgage at the end of 2006 was £85,500 which means that the combined increases in mortgage rates have added only about £30 per month to the monthly payment.

He added, "However, the average includes some very old loans and low value loans. More recent borrowers will have faced a much larger increase in monthly payments. A variable rate loan of £150,000 for example would already have seen an increase of around £60 and one of £200,000, £80 per month."

Earley acknowledges that the past rate rises are not insignificant, but should be manageable, especially as larger borrowers tend to take out fixed rate loans.

Little surprise then that fixed rate loans are enjoying renewed popularity - 76% of all house purchase and remortgage loans were taken out on a fixed rate in February.

However if the MPC was to hike rates sharply there is a risk that many borrowers on popular tracker rate products could find themselves with payment difficulties.

A further 1% increase in rates would mean an extra monthly payment of £153 on a £150,000 loan. This could clearly be quite uncomfortable for some, and those coming off fixed rate loans priced at around 4.99% two years ago would face an even greater payment hike of around £225 per month. You have been warned.

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What will happen to house prices over the next 12 months?
Storm ahead
Rise fairly strongly
Increase slowly
Stay flat
Drop a little
Drop a lot

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